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PROBABILISTIC APPROACH TO MEASURING PRICE RISK OF THE ENTERPRISE

Автор: Sveta on .

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Makarchuk I., Fedulova I. Jmovirnisnyj pidhid do vymirjuvannja cinovogo ryzyku pidpryjemstva. Visnyk Kyi'vs'kogo nacional'nogo torgovel'no-ekonomichnogo universytetu. 2021. № 4. Р. 19-35.

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DOI:  http://doi.org/10.31617/visnik.knute.2021(138)02

UDC 005.342:658.15
JEL Classification: С15, С81, D40, D81

MAKARCHUK Ivan,
postgraduate at the DepartmentofManagement
Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics
19, Kioto St., Kyiv, 02156, Ukraine

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ORCID:0000-0001-8085-0969
 
FEDULOVA Iryna,
Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Professor at the Department of Management
Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics
19, Kioto St., Kyiv, 02156, Ukraine

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ORCID: 0000-0002-8802-137X

PROBABILISTIC APPROACH TO MEASURING PRICE RISK OF THE ENTERPRISE

Background. Every manager faces analyzing problem and forecasting indicators in the process of making management decisions that are random variables, and therefore they are associated with risk and uncertainty. Their realization is possible in the future, but today we need to understand the risk level that can be encountered in the activity process and prepare for it in advance.
Analysis of recent research and publications has shown that probabilistic approach is the most commonly used tool for risk assessment and it is based on probability theory.
The aim of the article is to consider the tools of the probabilistic approach to riska ssessment. According to this approach, risk assessment is carried out for products price that have a normal law distribution and for which we can use an integrated probability distri­bution function and the key indicators that underlie its structure.
Materials and methods. The methodological basis of risk analysis by the probabilistic approach is the consideration of the initial data as expected values of some random variables with known laws of probability distribution.
Results. The use of tools of probabilistic approach to risk assessment of product pricing is considered. It is based on the assumption that a normal probability distribution law, an integral probability distribution function, and the key indicators that underlie its construction can be used to analyze market price risk.
Conclusion. Probabilistic approach allows with minimal effort to understand the probability of obtaining the desired result, which is related to the purpose of the enterprise, or which result can be obtained with the desired probability and determine their acceptability.
Keywords: risk, risk analysis, risk assessment, probabilistic approach, integral pro­bability distribution function.

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