PhD in Economics, Associate Professor at the University of State Fiscal Service of Ukraine
REGRESSIVE ANALYSIS IN AUDIT
Intercommunication between the performance indicators of enterprise is investigational, that reflected in its financial reporting. The dynamics of the use of productive supplies is analyzed by means of regressive analysis, the factors of influence impact their forming. Research methodology of the audit of financial and economic activity of an enterprise is offered.
Background. Instability of environment requires from management to instantly react on changes, only in this case an enterprise will successfully function in market relations. Mathematical methods are actual means of quality analysis implementation that gives an opportunity to take reasonable decisions. It allows immediately find out current problems on an enterprise, characterize influence of different factors on production, measure effectiveness of administrative decisions and forecast their consequences.
Review of scientific sources. Regressive analysis, as a method of estimation of enterprise activity, is often used in researches of scientists, but the built models do not take into account linear dependence between exogenous variables, that is the basis of productive process.
The aim of the research is an estimation of influence of the articles of the enterprise financial reporting on productive supplies in public accounting.
Materials and methods. The information basis of the research is statistical data of the financial reporting and State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Direction and force of intercommunication in accounting are investigated by the program STATGRAPHICS Centurion, regressive analysis has been conducted.
Results. The main source of addition to the productive supplies on an enterprise is a net profit. Substantial modernization of capital assets in 2011, due to bank credits, decreased turnover means of production; on the other hand due to the increase of production capacities the last three years an enterprise counts only on own possibilities. This step increased bits and pieces of the prepared products on compositions, that is why it is necessary to strengthen work of sales department, namely to find wholesale customers, awake interest in their system of discounts, extend sales geography and so on.
Comparing the results of design of nominal and real data it is possible to educe the hidden risks in enterprise’s activity. The analysis of coefficient of elasticity substantially changes from real data: net profit occupies leading position after influence, but its size 1.6 times. Influence of material expenses on the remuneration of labour is 4.7 times overpriced due to an inflationary constituent. The increase of charges on the remuneration of labour will accelerate turns of production, it is necessary to revise the system of labour stimulation of manufacturing staff, for example to implement a progressive rate. Influence of accounts receivable for commodities had an opposite tendency, its further increase of 1 % will result in reduction of volumes of productive supplies of 1.55 %. It is necessary to strengthen work with doubtful debts, to control legality of partners on business at the competitive market. A receipt on the real article would recover substantially the own obligations of enterprise and increase its circulating assets.
Conclusion. Productive process on an enterprise is close system, that envisages linear dependence of its constituents, the construction of regressive models on the initial stage must take into account a multicollinearity between indexes, that needs additional procedures on differentiation of influence of separate factors on an endogenous variable. One of the methods of its removal in regressive models is a construction of ridge regression by means of the program STATGRAPHICS Centurion. Comparing the analysis of nominal and real data it is possible to find out the hidden risks in enterprise’s activity that are not apparent. The real data carry the greater applied aspect, if to calculate by cumulative index of inflation.
In market conditions it is necessary to use all competitive edges, implementation of quality strategic analysis of enterprise’s activity is the key to the effective use of the monetary resources advanced in the inventories of supple, that optimizes the processes of operations management. This methodology can be used not only for the internal audit of financial and economic activity of enterprise but also when implementing: verification by the State fiscal service of Ukraine, independent audit by auditing firms. Financial and economic performance of management indicators can be both exogenous and endogenous.
Keywords: nominal and real indexes, volume of productive supplies, audit, financial reporting of enterprise, regressive model, ridge regression.